Monthly Archives: Dezember 2020

How should the role of Bitcoin be thought of in a portfolio?

How should the role of Bitcoin be thought of in a portfolio?

When we invest, we must do so by looking at the value of an asset and its role in our portfolio, not just its price.

When it comes to investments, the most frustrating part is the relentless focus on price rather than the quality, characteristics or possible uses of the asset. The psychology of the investor then almost always pushes us to enter an asset when it is more volatile and expensive, historically the worst time. As in life, also in the Crypto Genius investment world it takes a little common sense and organisation. When we invest, we must do so by looking at the value of an asset and its role in our portfolio. A portfolio is like a puzzle: each piece has a precise role and must therefore be built with care.

There is a lot of euphoria in the markets at this time, both in the stock markets and in the cryptocurrency markets. There is a lot of talk about Bitcoin and the appetite that institutional funds are beginning to have. Two factions have emerged among our clients: on the one hand the Bitcoiners, those who would put all their capital into BTC; on the other hand the skeptics, those who compare the asset to the Tulip bubble in the Netherlands in 1600.

In this article I will explain how I see Bitcoin as an investor, its position in the portfolio, why I would never put all my savings in one asset, and why investing is a generational issue.

The generational question

In the family, talking about assets always leads to endless discussions: different generations see capital management in different ways. This is a fairly common feature, as each generation invests according to the times they are running. The social and economic state strongly influences our propensity to take risks.

For example the Silent Generation, the one born between 1928 and 1945, lived in a period of strong instability and for this reason their interest was more in gold. The Baby Boomers, on the other hand, those who saw one of the best demographic and economic booms in history, were greedy stock buyers because they benefited in expansive periods. Generation X, the generation after the Baby Boomers, came at a time when yields and stock returns were starting to fall. For this reason, they had a strong interest in hedge funds and all those alternative structures that offered (or promised) returns above the market.

And this brings us to the latest generation. The one that has been entering the markets for some years: the Millennials. The largest generation in history is living in a time when markets are at an all-time high. But the markets and the economy have then reached a gap never seen before: while the markets continue to rise, the economies are getting worse. This is the correlation between markets and GDP, which as you can see has become negative.

This situation is pushing Millennials increasingly towards Bitcoin, the disrupting asset.

Have the Institutional Funds sniffed it out?

Until a few years ago the relationship between Institutional Investors and Bitcoin seemed almost impossible. In reality the evolution seems to be in line with that of a new and unconventional asset: Institutional Investors, and here we are talking about big money managers, need time before adopting an asset. They need to feel comfortable, or at least understand the risks and have a track record: Bitcoin today has reached this track record, being more than 10 years old. It is also important that an asset, in order to be considered as such, goes through at least one crisis, as investors always want to see how it behaves during less rosy periods.

Bitcoin was baptized in March 2020: today it is still alive and well, heading towards even higher levels. That’s why Bitcoin has followed the steps that follow any other asset: it started with angel investors, or rather those investors who have more appetite for risk (like the Winklevoss brothers for example), many of whom have become billionaires thanks to cryptocurrency.

We then moved on to Michael Novogratz, the founder of the investment fund Galaxy Digital Holdings, who worked as hedge fund manager at Fortress Investment Group and Goldman Sachs. He followed Barry Silbert, the founder of Grayscale Investments, the company that manages the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), the first fund to actually give Bitcoin access to the institutional world. In the United States, Grayscale has become the portal that helps institutional funds diversify their portfolios and gain exposure to Bitcoin. According to Morningstar, since the beginning of the year the price of GBTC has grown 189%, while the NAV is 161%. These numbers show how much institutional funds are increasing their appetite for Bitcoin.

Ethereum 2.0: deposit contract receives around 40,000 ETH per day

The ETH 2.0 deposit contract receives around 40,000 ETH each day for its staking.

If the current pace continues, more than 15 million ETH will be staked into the contract by next year around the same time.

There is currently a waiting period for new nodes, as only 28,800 ETH can be spent daily creating new nodes

Ethereum 2.0’s Beacon Chain, which launched on December 1, is off to a good start with more and more users continuing to flock to the platform.

One of the key elements in this advancement in the network has been the adoption of a new verification method, with Ethereum moving from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS).

This change means that users will now have to place their Bitcoin Era review on the network as a guarantee of validation. Previously, it was necessary to have computer software dedicated to mining.

For the initial launch of ETH 2.0 Beacon Chain , just over 500,000 ETH had to be staked on the network for it to reach its minimum level of security. This threshold of 500,000 ETH was reached relatively quickly, with a million ETH being “staked” a few days later.

Deposits keep pouring in

The current deposit contract balance is approaching 1.3 million ETH, with the contract receiving almost 40,000 ETH deposited per day.

Since users must deposit a minimum of 32 ETH into the deposit agreement in order to be eligible for a node , this number will not include users who have less than 32 ETH.

Although users are limited by this requirement, there are already exchanges and services that will allow users to deposit any amount of Ethereum they wish to staking, such as Kraken. Kraken launched its staking service for Ethereum 2.0 just a few days ago and has already placed 100,000 ETH on its exchange. This is a substantial percentage compared to the actual deposit contract.

On Twitter, internet user @antiprosynth posted an interesting statistic showing that the current deposit rate is almost three times the daily issuance rate of ETH. It is difficult to say whether deposits will continue at this rate. If this is the case however, it could create supply problems in the Ethereum market .

Le XRP se rapproche d’un taux de rupture de 60% malgré la consolidation

Le XRP se rapproche d’un taux de rupture de 60% malgré la consolidation

Le jeton natif de Ripple, XRP, pourrait se diriger vers un autre mouvement explosif vers le haut.

Le XRP s’échange dans une fourchette étroite qui se resserre.
Un pic dans les ordres d’achat autour des niveaux de prix actuels Bitcoin Future pourrait voir le prix du XRP augmenter de plus de 60 %.
Toutefois, la pression de vente accrue des investisseurs „baleiniers“ est une raison de s’inquiéter de la valeur à long terme du XRP.

  • Le XRP semble former un modèle haussier massif, même si le reste du marché reste stagnant.
  • Le XRP est sur le point d’éclater

XRP a développé un drapeau de taureau dans la carte quotidienne. La hausse de 200% qui a porté le jeton XRP à près de 0,80 $ à la fin novembre a formé le mât du drapeau, tandis que la période de consolidation en cours crée le drapeau de ce modèle de continuation.

Un pic dans la pression d’achat pourrait entraîner une rupture dans la même direction que la tendance précédente. En effet, le modèle de drapeau haussier prévoit un saut de 66% sur le point de rupture, ce qui pourrait amener la pièce au-delà de la barrière psychologique de 1,00 $.

Cet objectif est déterminé en mesurant la hauteur du mât du drapeau et en ajoutant cette distance à la limite supérieure du drapeau.

Commentaires des principaux analystes sur le XRP

L’un des analystes les plus éminents de l’industrie estime que le XRP pourrait atteindre 1,00 $. Peter Brandt, un vétéran du commerce depuis 40 ans, soutient la thèse selon laquelle la pièce forme un drapeau de taureau sur le graphique quotidien.

L’analyste technique considère la résistance de 0,68 $ comme un obstacle crucial qui déterminera si le jeton des règlements internationaux visera 1,00 $. Brandt écrit que „la correction du XRP a pris la forme d’un triangle symétrique classique. Une valeur proche de 0,6810 compléterait ce schéma“.

Il ajoute que „XRP a également un objectif non atteint de 0,9487 à partir de l’achèvement de l’échelle logarithmique d’un fond de H&S sur le graphique hebdomadaire.“

Les baleines déchargent leurs jetons

Les données techniques suggèrent que les prix sont sur le point d’augmenter encore. Cependant, les investisseurs „baleiniers“ disposant de millions de dollars en XRP ont considérablement réduit leurs positions au cours des dernières semaines.

Le graphique de distribution des détenteurs de Santiment montre que depuis le 22 novembre, le nombre d’adresses détenant 1 à 10 millions de XRP a chuté. Environ 37 baleines ont quitté le réseau ou redistribué leurs jetons, ce qui représente une baisse de 2,7% sur une courte période.

Compte tenu de l’augmentation de la pression à la baisse, il est impératif de prêter une attention particulière au soutien sous-jacent à 0,57 $. Un bougeoir quotidien clôturant en dessous de ce seuil de prix compromettra les perspectives haussières et entraînera de nouvelles pertes pour les détenteurs.

Sur son chemin vers la baisse, le XRP pourrait trouver un support autour de 0,40 $.